Abstract: In order to analyze the stability of the roof below the subsidence area，the RMR rock mass classification and the Q system rock mass classification have been used for rock quality evaluation to calculate the rock condition，and the mechanical model of the subsidence area has been established to analyze the strained state in the roof. The results show that the roof of -127 m level is unstable enough with the mechanical condition of the collapse．The possibility of the collapse of the mined-out area in -127 m level has been verified by the calculation results of the 3D FEM numerical analysis，then the time series predicting analysis has been used for rock displacement deformation．Based on the results of predicting data，the rock movement value of -127 m level increases gradually with the accumulation of potential collapse. Therefore, supporting scheme should be formulated to control the value of rock movement and the time series prediction should be forecasted periodically to monitor the tendency of the rock movement value．

Key words: rock quality evaluation, mechanical analysis, 3D numerical simulation, stability analysis, time series