锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形速度的混沌预测研究

采矿与安全工程学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 385-389.

锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形速度的混沌预测研究

山东科技大学矿业与安全工程学院，矿山灾害预防控制-省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地，山东青岛 266590

出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-20
作者简介:刘学生(1988-)，男，山东省德州市人，博士研究生，从事采矿及矿山岩石力学方面的研究。 E-mail：xuesheng1134@163.com Tel：15966941134
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51274133，51174129)；山东省自然科学基金重点项目(ZR2012EEZ002)；山东科技大学“矿山压力与岩层控制”创新团队基金项目(2010KYTD105)；山东科技大学研究生科技创新基金项目(YC130101)

Chaotic prediction of surrounding rock deformation speed in coal roadway supported by bolt

Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形具有非线性特征，本文基于围岩变形速度时间序列重构相空间的最大Lyapunov指数，建立了煤巷围岩变形速度的递进预测和非递进预测方法，并对木城涧煤矿+250 m水平北石门三槽西四壁工作面中平巷两帮移近速度进行预测，结果表明：围岩变形速度具有混沌特性，且两帮变形速度比顶底板变形速度的混沌程度高；围岩变形速度的拟合效果好，误差较小；采用递进预测比非递进预测方法的预测效果好，最大可预测时间尺度为45 d，平均误差为10.99%。以递进预测结果为依据进行围岩补强支护实践，获得了满意效果。

关键词: 混沌, Lyapunov指数, 递进预测, 补强支护

Abstract: Bolting surrounding rocks of coal roadway have nonlinear characteristics. In this paper, based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of deformation speed series, progressive forecasting and non-progressive forecasting methods of surrounding rock deformation speed were established to forecast the horizontal approaching speeds in two sides of one roadway in Muchengjian coal mine. The results show that the deformation speeds of surrounding rocks have chaotic characteristics, and the chaotic degree of deformation speeds between two sides is higher than that between the roof and floor. The fitting effect of surrounding rock deformation speed is satisfactory, and the fitting error is small. The prediction effect of progressive forecasting is better than that of non-progressive forecasting, and the largest predictable time is about 45 days, with the average relative error of 10.99%. Based on the progressive forecasting results, supplement support practice of surrounding rocks was carried out, and a satisfactory result has been achieved.

Key words: chaos, Lyapunov exponent, progressive forecasting, supplement support

刘学生, 谭云亮, 宁建国. 锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形速度的混沌预测研究[J]. 采矿与安全工程学报, 2014, 31(3): 385-389.

LIU Xuesheng, TAN Yunliang, NING Jianguo. Chaotic prediction of surrounding rock deformation speed in coal roadway supported by bolt[J]. Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering, 2014, 31(3): 385-389.