Abstract: In this paper, based on the catastrophe progression method which combining the catastrophe theory and the fuzzy mathematics, a new catastrophe progression index to evaluate rock burst was proposed. Meanwhile, by comprehensive considering of the influence factors of rock burst risk, a new evaluation model of rock burst was built. In addition, after the nondimensionalization and normalization processing of the influencing factors, the sample learning on the model was conducted according to the field data in coal mine, the catastrophe progressions of different burst risk grades were ascertained, and the model was verified by using the existing data. Finally, the evaluation model was applied to engineering practice, and was compared with other evaluation methods. The results show that this method has accuracy evaluation results, high precision and good practical value.

Key words: rock burst, catastrophe theory, fuzzy mathematics, catastrophe progression method