关键词: 山区, 开采沉陷, 地表移动观测站, 概率积分法, 地表滑移预测模型, 统一参数

Abstract: In this paper, in view of the difficulty to choose prediction parameters of ground movement model in mountain area caused by coal mining, the solution scheme of the uniform prediction parameters for ground movement model were put forward. After colleting and analyzing the ground movement data of 14 representative observation stations in Shanxi Province, then considering the uniform prediction parameters of the model and the maximum subsidence values predicted by probability integral method as the control vector, and the maximum measured subsidence values as the output vector, the uniform prediction parameters were finally obtained, that is, A=7.63, P=1.60, and t=3.40, by using least squares nonlinear fitting optimization algorithm. The example analysis results show that the average relative errors of the predicted subsidence values and horizontal movement values were 9% and 21%, respectively, when using the uniform prediction parameters, which can meet the demands of engineering precision.

Key words: mountain area, mining subsidence, ground movement observation station, probability integral method, ground movement prediction model, uniform parameter