关键词: 灰色-分源预测, 灰预测, 分源预测

Abstract: In this paper, to predict the relative gas emission rate in mine, a new grey and separated resources prediction method was proposed, and the mathematical model of gray-separate source prediction was constructed, that is, by the combination of grey and separate source predictions, the grey theory was used first to make long-term predictions for the relative gas emission in mining coal face and the absolute gas emission in drilling face, then the prediction results were substituted in calculation formula of separated resource model for the prediction of relative gas emission rate in the mine. This method has overcome the low prediction accuracy of grey theory and the short-term prediction of separate source method, and has combined the long-term prediction of grey theory with the high accuracy of separate source prediction. Moreover, the calculation steps and mathematical model of gray-separate source prediction method were introduced in detail in this paper, and the accuracy and feasibility of this method were finally verified by engineering examples. Thus, due to its high prediction accuracy, it can realize the medium and long term dynamic prediction of gas emission rate in coal mines.

Key words: grey and separated resources prediction method, grey prediction, separated resources prediction method