关键词: 突水, 变权, 脆弱性评价, 评价效果, 参数, 灵敏度分析

Abstract: To better understand the characteristics of vulnerability assessment model of water inrush from seam floor based on the variable weight theory, evaluation rendering, typical evaluation cell and comprehensive evaluation value range have been compared to analyze the advancement of variable weights evaluation model. Meanwhile, in order to assess the influence of scope and extent of the parameters on the evaluation results in the vulnerability assessment model of water inrush from seam floor based on the variable weight theory, local sensitivity analysis method has been used to carry out sensitivity analysis respectively for the adjustment weight parameters and main controlling parameters in the evaluation model. The result shows that: the relationship between vulnerability index change with adjustment weight parameters a2 and a3, aquifer pressure, water abundance of aquifer, fault-scale index, the distribution of faults and folds as well as the change of fault cross-endpoint is a positive correlation, and is negative correlation between vulnerability index change with adjustment weight parameters c, equivalent thickness of effective aquifer, the thickness of the brittle rock under the mine pressure damaged zone. There is a significant change in the sensitivity coefficient on the inflexion point of adjustment parameters amplitude plus or minus 5%. There is a major influence of adjustment weight parameters a1 and a2, equivalent thickness of effective aquifer of the main controlling factor index, aquifer pressure on the change of vulnerability index.

Key words: water inrush, variable weight, vulnerability assessment, evaluation effect, parameters, sensitivity analysis